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For our next study in this Quick Take, let’s look at new data on which antidepressant is the most effective.
This is a meta-analysis from a team of really experienced statistician researchers. The lead author is Andrea Cipriani, and this was published in 2018 in the *Lancet*. Amongst the researchers we should know is John Ioannidis, who is at Stanford. You might recognize that name. He is the fellow who, in 2005, said that more than half of published research is false. And really what he’s saying is that in any given study, there’s a prior probability of the assertion, whatever is the primary hypothesis in the study, that it’s true. And when a study appears, we then have a posterior probability that the assertion, the hypothesis is true, and that any given study cannot really move that curve very much. What you need is replication, where the prior probability
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